Christian financial advisors warn Greek crisis could reach UK

Aidan Vaughan

The Association of Christian Financial Advisers is warning that a Greek debt default could trigger a tidal wave of consequences across Europe’s interconnected financial systems. ACFA fears a debt tsunami leading to a domino effect across Europe – impacting British banks and precipitating the break-up of the Eurozone.

Aidan Vaughan, Chair of the Association of Christian Financial Advisers, said: "Greece is normally associated with sunlit island holidays, the birth-place of western culture, the Acropolis or perhaps those places where St Paul preached. In recent months there have been acres of newsprint on the ‘Greek debt crisis’ – top level meetings between ‘Eurozone’ leaders and the International Monetary Fund, plus of course general strikes and hardship for ordinary Greeks.

"Greece is in serious economic trouble – its debts (practically the most worthless in the world) have spiralled out of control and a weak, uncompetitive economy is now on its knees. In years gone by, Greece would have devalued the drachma and pushed the problem into the future hoping things would get better.

"Unfortunately, as Greece is part of the Euro single currency they cannot ‘devalue’. What else can they do aside from beg for yet more loans? Well, they could default and go bankrupt but here’s the rub - no one really knows the consequences! The rioters in Athens probably realise that their woes are also someone else’s problem.

"Many will remember that it was Lehman Brothers going bust that really triggered the chain reaction which sank the banks in the Credit Crunch of three years ago. A Greek default could cause not simply ripples but a tidal wave of consequences in Europe as financial systems are so interconnected.

"As well as the immediate consequences for the European Central Bank (ECB) there is enormous exposure for German and especially French banks among others, an unknown exposure in the credit default markets (where banks insure against the defaults of others), and then the risk of a ‘domino effect’.

"By this, international money markets will then assume that weaker indebted ‘Euro’ economies will hit the buffers as well. Ireland has already been rescued once. Should a similar ‘debt tsunami’ engulf Spain then that is too large an economy to be easily rescued, and Spain’s debts are very widely held, including by major UK banks.

"The ultimate consequence could be the break up of the Eurozone as we know it and a ‘two speed’ Europe would result - a core around Germany and a Mediterranean/Eastern European periphery.
 
"Industrial powerhouse Germany, having absorbed the old East Germany, is able to borrow at a fraction of the cost of Greece, yet benefits from being able to export from a generally weak currency - no wonder Germany’s factories are booming!

"There has been so much political capital invested in developing the Eurozone, and the wish for ultimate political union, that every effort will be made to ‘fudge’ the issue. The Sir Humphrey-like Eurocrats are trying to ‘re-profile’ the debts and prevent default, perhaps in a similar way that United States’ ‘Brady bonds’ helped stem the Latin American debt crises in the 1990s.

"All financial markets need liquidity, and problems in one sector affect others, so in a sense the problems in Greece are our problems too. Is this all an illusion - a slow motion train wreck with the impact being delayed until Europe’s banks are strong enough to absorb the shock? Or even a giant game of chicken between financial markets and the Greek citizenry calling for the inevitable default on the one hand and the Brussels mandarins looking to forestall it for as long as possible?

"Meanwhile the ‘fudge’ continues to gather momentum as a further colossal €120 billion bailout is promised, dependent on the Greek Parliament agreeing to yet more cuts. This is a mighty sticking plaster - but will it be enough?

"As Christians we must take a view in line with the principles outlined in the 2350 biblical verses given on money and possessions. Repentance requires us to recognise the problems, expressing regret at the very least, accepting help, and then making sure that things do not go wrong in the same way in the future.

"Avoiding unnecessary borrowing is a good biblical principle as Proverbs 22v7 tells us ‘The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender’.

"The decisions about Greece’s future are now largely taken by Germany and France. Will the real statesman of Europe please stand up?"

ACFA is the UK network of Christian financial advisers and related professionals. It aims to be the voice of Christian financial advice and champions best practice in the UK. The ACFA website offers links to Christian financial advisers across the UK.

For further information see: www.christianfinancialadvisers.org.uk